Forecasting the Adoption of E-Books Essay Example for Free

Forecasting the Adoption of E-Books Essay Question 1 The size of the market for e-books in the long-run: 293. 7 million x 46. 7% x 8% = 10. 973 million (Total US population x percentage of US population reading literature x Percentage of traditional paper books purchased online in 2003) It will take 10 years to reach 95% penetration of the potential market. Question 2 I predict that the sale of the e-book when it first became available is 0. 751milion (pm) (Assumption: each innovator buy one book. ) Question 3 The long-run total adoption of e-books would be 10. 973 million. (Total US population x percentage of US population reading literature x Percentage of traditional paper books purchased online in 2003) Question 4 I do expect the market for e-books tend to be guided by imitators rather than innovators. According to the table above, I found that the weighted average for e-book of q (0. 0684) is larger than p (0. 2990). In addition, the word of mouth takes an important role in the adoption of e-books. The information about the e-book from the innovators contribute much to the adoption of e-books since people tend to hesitate to change their old reading habit. Question 5 S(t)=[p+(q/m)N(t-1)][m-N(t-1)] Year 1: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (0)][10. 973-0] = 0. 751 million Year 2: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (0. 751)][10. 973-0. 751] = 0. 908 million Year 3: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (1. 659)][10. 973-1. 659] = 1. 059 million Year 4: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (2. 717)][10. 973-2. 717] = 1. 176 million Year 5: [0. 0684+(0. 2990/10. 973) X (3. 893)][10. 973-3. 893] = 1. 235 million Question 6 The adoption of e-book will be very different from digital music obtained online. The adoption of e-books face more challenges when comparing to the adoption of digital music. To most of the listeners, there is not much difference in experience between listening to a song from an iPod and a CD player. Therefore, they have a relatively low switching cost and more willing to change their habits. On the contrary, to most of the readers, it is definitely very different from reading an e-book to reading a printed book. The feelings of holding a printed book and flipping over a physical book are irreplaceable. So readers are loyal to printed book and hesitate to switch from traditional books to e-books. Hence, it is reasonable to predict that the pace of adopting digital music is faster than the pace of adopting e-books. Question 7 I think both of the attitudes about reading and purchasing e-content have changed a lot in recent years. In the old time, people could read e-content via PC only. Nowadays, people are able to read e-content through various mobile devices. Therefore, they spend more time on reading e-content especially during leisure time and even commuting time. However, the quality of the reading effort is diminishing as the overload of e-content available on Internet. In addition, people tend to rely more on the e-content since it is very convenient, environmentally friendly, high mobility and high accessibility. For the attitude about purchasing e-content, more people are willing to pay for the e-content in recent years. The advanced online payment system plays an important role. People feel more secure and also convenient when dealing online ever than before. Moreover, more well-known and large-scale publishers offer more choices of e-content for readers. Besides, in the light of the prevalent of mobile device, people have more time and chances to read the e-content regardless of the time and places. Thus, people are more willing to spend on e-content than before. Question 8 The hardware plays a paramount important role in the adoption of e-books. No matter how amazing the e-content is, the e-books would not be popularized if the hardware were not user-friendly. However, a good hardware is very likely to boost sales of the e-books. It is because the hardware is a fixed cost while the e-books are the variable cost to the readers. A portable hardware with proper size of monitor and high capacity is very attractive to the readers. They no longer need to neither carry the bulky printed books nor spare some places for storage. Moreover, the hardware enables readers to read comfortably when comparing to read via PC or smart phone. It is good for the readers’ eyes. Last but not least, the hardware contributed to protecting the environment as it saves much paper. Only when the hardware preforms better than the tradition printed books, the adoption of e-books will be success. Question 9 I do expect the size and also the pattern of diffusion are quite different globally as compared to the United States. The size and the pattern of diffusion depend on many factors. Population, culture, attitude to new products, technology and even literacy could be one of the variables of the size and pattern of diffusion. Take Africa as an example; though the population size of Africa is much larger than The United States, the potential size of the market for e-books must be obviously different from the United States. So it is not difficult to understand that the size and pattern of diffusion of various places will not be similar to the United States.

Conflict in The Victory by Anne Stevenson :: Victory

Conflict in The Victory by Anne Stevenson " I thought you were my victory /though you cut me like a knife" (Stevenson 1-2) The opening lines of Anne Stevenson's poem The Victory set a tone of conflict. This poem, at its surface, expresses a mother's thoughts on giving birth to a son. Stevenson describes the mixed feelings many mothers have upon the delivery of their first born. The final release from pregnancy and birthing pains, coupled with the excitement of bringing a live creature into this world, at first seem a victory to the new parent. The author goes on to confute the event as a victory. Using words such as "antagonist" (5), "bruise" (6), and "scary"(13), she shows the darker side of childbirth. The mother has felt her own life's blood flowing that a stranger might live "The stains of your glory bled from my veins." (6-8). That she sees her own child as a stranger is evident in lines nine and ten, where the child is described as a "blind thing" (9) with "blank insect eyes"(10). The mother portrays her baby as a bug, not even human. In the last section of the poem, two questions are asked, attesting to the mother's internal conflict. "Why do I have to love you?/ How have you won?" (15-16). These unanswerable queries are some of the fundamental questions of our human existence. Below the topmost layer of meaning in The Victory, is an underlying theme that any parent or guardian will easily relate to. Children are born out of the great pain their mothers endure. They are helpless in one sense, yet they command the care of their parents. Stevenson describes the intrinsic helplessness of infants with the words "Blind"(9) and "Hungry"(14). Yet, this poem does not refer to new born babes alone. Birthing pains do not cease with the delivery of a child. The conflict described in this poem is felt by parents of adult children as well. All parents give of their lifeblood, at least in the emotional sense, in raising and maintaining their offspring. The Victory is a poem written as if by a mother only just delivered of a new born son, yet the themes expressed in its lines apply to all the

Marty King Essay

Erik Erikson had numerous contributions to the field of psychology; many of which involved his developmental theory. Erikson has been compared to Sigmund Freud; as both men believed that humans develop in stages. Erikson however, believed Freud to be misguided, as Erikson believed that developmental process is one which occurs throughout one’s lifespan; whereas Freud believed that a human’s personality developed by the age of five (Chen, 2007). Erikson published numerous books on human development; as well as issues including the generation gap, changing sexual roles and racial tensions. This quantitative research paper however, discusses Erikson’s eight stages of development and how each stage correlates with symptoms of borderline personality disorder. Each of Erikson’s eight developmental stages consists of certain elements (crises), which if not resolved will result in negative outcomes. The researcher believes that when crises are not resolved within Erikson’s developmental stages, it predisposes individuals to borderline personality disorder. In order to prove this hypothesis, the researcher will conduct quantitative research on the causes and symptoms of borderline personality disorder and the negative outcomes of Erikson’s eight developmental stages; the phenomenological research will then be compared. Borderline personality disorder has been widely studied over the past several decades; however, there is limited research on what childhood (birth to age eighteen) attributes contribute to the onset of BPD. Approximately two percent (up to ten million) of adults in the U. S. are diagnosed with BPD; accounting for twenty percent of psychiatric hospitalizations (NIMH, 2008); many cases of BPD go undiagnosed. Genetic factors have been primarily studied in the past as the biological cause of BPD; however recent research shows that forty to seventy-one percent of BPD patients were sexually abused as children (NIMH, 2008), approximately seventy-three percent report physical abuse and emotional abuse and neglect are also commonly reported in BPD cases. These statistics indicate that there is reason to believe that childhood trauma could significantly predispose a person to BPD. While research as to the possible causes of BPD has been conducted, the researcher proposes that a quantitative study be conducted in order to collect phenomenological data from various studies, for comparison to Erikson’s eight stages of development. The reason for this strategy is that by comparing the results of numerous studies, the researcher can produce â€Å"the bigger picture†, of what predisposes individuals to BPD; thus increasing the probability of successful recovery. The researcher chose Erikson’s eight developmental stages as model for comparison because the eight crises depicted in this model demonstrate the traumas indicated in many BPD cases. When the eight crises are not resolved, the results correlate with BPD symptoms. The researcher aims to prove that individuals who do not resolve the eight negative crises of Erikson’s developmental model; thus suffering some form of childhood trauma, are predisposed to BPD as adults. As mentioned previously, the information proving this hypothesis can be used to improve treatment options for BDP patients. The researcher for this study would like to see a reduction in hospitalization as a treatment for BPD patients; and instead implement alternative methods, such as assisting patients through Erikson’s eight stages. Assisting patients through the eight stages will allow them to re-learn emotional skills and abilities; such as coping skills. The researcher’s professional background in BPD clinical work has allowed significant insight into the difficulties of BPD treatment. Due to the immense amount of physical and emotional energy needed to work with BPD patients; many professionals tend to provide affirmation of the history of failure and poor coping skills by treating the patient with sympathy instead of empathy. The researcher believes that understanding the reasoning behind BPD patient behavior will improve the patient’s ability to improve poor coping skills. This change in professional behavior will reduce the feelings of being burnt out and tired because the professional will be able to support the success of the patient instead of doing the work for them. Currently, there is an attitudinal barrier between the professional and the patient which results in a failure to understand the condition of BPD. The researcher hopes to promote an understanding of BPD patient behavior; behaviors which many clinical professionals find exasperating. In increasing understanding of the development of BPD behaviors, clinicians will be better equipped to work with patients in an inclusive partnership rather than feeling they are exceeding appropriate boundaries. Literature Review Erikson’s Eights Stages of Development The â€Å"Eight Stages of Development†, the process of socialization, were developed by Erik Erikson in 1956 (Child Institute Center, n. d. ). Erikson had extensive experience in psychotherapy; including children and teens of all social classes. Erikson believed that each stage presented a â€Å"psychosocial crisis† in which an individual must experience, learn and resolve in order to successfully manage the next step. Erikson’s eight stages are represented in Figure 1. The eight stages are based on the â€Å"interaction of three different systems: the Somatic system, the ego system, and the societal system† (Keenan, p. 22, 2002). The somatic system refers to the biological processes of human functioning. The ego system are the central thinking and reasoning processes (2002); and the societal system is the process an individual goes through as he becomes integrated into his society. Erikson believed that the eight stages occurred in order and each stage represented a crisis which had to be resolved by the individual. Whether the crisis was completed successfully or not would be the deciding factor on how successful the next stage would be. If the crisis was not mastered, then the individual would be ill prepared to deal with the next stage of development; this trend would continue throughout all the stages. Erikson did believe that the eight stages were relevant throughout life and that he linked a crisis to each stage because that is when the crisis was most salient (Cohen, 2007). Oral-Sensory Stage. In this first stage (trust/mistrust), the first year of life is defined as the time for building trust; this is accomplished by the infant learning trust through the parent or caregiver’s actions and responses to the infant’s needs. Feeding is the focal point of Erikson’s first stage; when the child cries for food, the parent will feed and comfort the infant. If the child is neglected, he will learn to be mistrustful. Erikson also believed if trust was not established in the first stage, the child could become â€Å"frustrated, withdrawn, suspicious, and will lack self-confidence† (Sharkey, 1997). Muscular-Anal Stage. The second stage (autonomy/doubt) consists of ages one through two years old. During this stage the child is face with the development of self-control which is accomplished by a supportive atmosphere. If basic trust was not developed in stage one, the child will have difficulty in establishing self control in stage two, resulting in a lack of self-esteem (Sharkey, 1997). If the parent is too controlling, or does not provide enough structure the child can become doubtful of himself and the environment around him.

Romantic Heroes Essay - 808 Words

The Romantic hero, fashioned by the Romantics, is portrayed as a paradigmatic, random individual with a particular purpose. The Romantic hero begins his mission by following his inner light, in order to achieve his goal. He will not rest until it is consummated. Through two of Longfellows works, A Psalm of Life, and Excelsior, Longfellow illustrates the full picture of a Romantic hero. The description that Longfellow gives is so precise, that it can cause a reader to question Hawthornes, another Romantics character, Young Goodman Brown, as an actual romantic hero. In both Excelsior and A Psalm of Life, Longfellow creates the two different Romantic heroes with specific inner lights. Although the two different characters have†¦show more content†¦Human life, he declares, would not be life without the dream of life after death. Setting an example is also an integral part of being a Romantic hero. Longfellow believes that man creates his own fate through the choices he makes. A person can find the purpose, or even his purpose, of life through the decisions he makes. Not everyone will end up happy, but leading a life of achievement will offer an ending to an existence well worth living. Longfellow discusses this in his work. The boy in Excelsior tries to fulfill his destiny when he, half buried in the snow was found, still grasping in his hand of ice, that banner with the strange device. Longfellow wants the readers to learn from this boy. The youth was sent to complete a task and with every last breath of air he attempts to fulfill his destiny. The boy in the poem dies on the mountain but his spirit still goes on. Even though the boy never reached his goal, Longfellow wants the reader to note that he died trying. The poem tells the reader that the boy is serene and far, or in other words, he chooses to still climb. A Psalm of Life has a different kind of message that can be le arnt from. 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